INVESTIGATION ON THE WAYS OF REALIZING ECOLOMICALLY SOUND RECYCLING IN BASHANG REGION——EMULATION OF THE ECOLOMIC SYSTEMS FOR GUYUAN RANCH IN HUBEI PROVINCE

According to the principles of ecolomics, taking Guyuan Ranch of Hebei province as a study site, the method for realizing profitable ecolomic recycling of the Bashang region has been investigated through modeling of systems engineering. The system dynamic model was applied as the main model which expressed the general feedback relations of the whole system structure. Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the impact of erosion on soil fertility. A comprehensive integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis, coefficient simulation, and grey system model was used for prediction. An "Ecolomic Laboratory" has been established to reflect the trand of ecolomic development of that region and its regularity of variation. Several programs have been formulated based on the practical experiences and qualitative analysis. A comprehensive evalution was carried out according to the results of computer emulation to seek for strategy and measures of continual development and mutual promotion of agriculture and animal production consistent with natural environmental conditions.