A Patch-scale Anthropogenic Disturbance Risk Assessment and Traceability Analysis within Ecological Conservation Redlines in the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi Province

Conducting quantitative assessments and diagnostic research on anthropogenic disturbances within ecological conservation redlines (ECRs) is critical for optimizing the effectiveness of redline management and ensuring regional ecological security. This study focuses on the ECR areas in the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi Province, adopting ecological damage patches to carry out a preliminary ecological damage risk assessment and traceability analysis. The study aims are to quantitatively identify key stress factors, delineate risk zones, and propose differentiated risk regulation strategies. The results indicate the following: (1) The Shaanxi section of the Qinling Mountains exhibits a spatial pattern characterized by overall moderate risk with localized high-risk clusters. These high-risk clusters are primarily located within the ECR water conservation areas on the northern slopes. (2) Patch hazards, patch accessibility, and ecological sensitivity jointly contribute to ecological damage risk. Among these, patch accessibility is the core factor driving spatial heterogeneity, with a particularly direct and significant impact on ecological receptor quality. (3) The proportion of the ECR areas that overlap with patch areas is the primary structural risk factor. When this proportion is higher, it indicates greater overlap between human activities and ecological core areas, and thus a higher level of risk. Furthermore, greater patch shape complexity results in stronger edge effects and lower ecological stability. In summary, this study clarifies the driving mechanisms of ecological risk through nonlinear quantitative assessment, providing a scientific basis for the differentiated management, source-specific risk prevention and control, and sustainable development of the ECRs in the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi Province.