Spatio-temporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of County-level Land Use Carbon Emissions in Northern Jiangsu

Investigating the spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanisms of land use carbon emissions (LUCE) is of paramount practical significance for promoting low-carbon sustainable development at the county level. Taking 37 counties in Northern Jiangsu as the study area, this research integrated multisource data-including land use, nighttime lights, and energy statistics-to analyze the spatio-temporal differentiation and drivers of county-level LUCE from 2000 to 2020. The methodology employed spatial autocorrelation, standard deviational ellipse (SDE), the STIRPAT model, and the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model.The results indicate that: From 2000-2020, the overall LUCE growth rate in Northern Jiangsu reached 226.83%, accompanied by a 43.99% increase in construction land area. Temporally, carbon emissions exhibited a three-stage trajectory: "rapid growth-decelerated growth-stabilization." Spatially, a distribution pattern emerged with higher concentrations in the northwest and southeast and lower levels in the central region.The global Moran's I index decreased from 0.211 to 0.208, suggesting a slight weakening in spatial agglomeration. Furthermore, the LUCE centroid shifted 8.61 km toward the southeast.Economic scale (F3, GDP) was identified as the predominant driver, with a maximum regression coefficient of 4.961 6. While the emission-reduction effect of energy intensity (F7, EI) progressively emerged, it exhibited a noticeable time lag. Moreover, the impact intensity of various driving factors on LUCE showed significant spatial heterogeneity.Systematically elucidating the influence of these factors on LUCE evolution enables the effective identification of spatio-temporal driving effects, providing scientific evidence for the formulation of differentiated carbon reduction policies in Northern Jiangsu.