Analysis of Spatio-temporal Differentiation of Carbon Effects of Rural Land Use Changes and the Influencing Factors: Case of Jiangsu Province

It is an important issue in low-carbon transformation in territorial spatial planning to promote the efficiency of village land use. In order to support the formulation of refined and differentiated carbon-reduction policies/ regulations for Jiangsu Province, we explored the carbon emission effects of village land-use change and their multi-factor drivers from 1990 to 2020 in the province. Specifically, with the employment of carbon-emission coefficients, geometric-centroid analysis, Moran's I, and stepwise multiple regression methods, the spatio-temporal patterns of carbon emissions and the carbon effects of land-use change at the county level in Jiangsu, together with their influencing factors were systematically analyzed. The results show that: (1) Carbon emissions of village land in individual counties basically show a net emission effect, while net emissions per area has declined steadily and displays significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (2) Carbon-emission of village land transferred from other land use types in individual counties show a net emission effect as well, with a spatial pattern characterized by higher values in the south and west and lower values in the north and east. (3) According to the global scale assessment, rural population density, distance of villages to rivers, and the proportion of urban and mining land have higher impacts on the carbon emission of village land-use change than other factors. (4) In the annual-based assessment, it is shown that the village production and living activities generated substantial carbon emissions. Besides, rural population density, distance to rivers, and the share of primary-industry output are the primary factors influencing the carbon-emission of village land transferred from other land use types, among which population exerts a relatively long-term influence. The determinants of overall carbon effects are similar to those of inflow carbon effects. Our research achievements could provide guidance for further refining localized carbon-reduction policies and enhancing village land-use efficiency.