工业场地污染生态风险评估不确定性控制: 基于生态情景与因果推断的多层评估框架

Uncertainty Control in Ecological Risk Assessment of Industrial Sites Contamination: A Tiered Framework Based on Ecological Scenarios and Causal Inferences

  • 摘要: 工业场地土壤污染问题日益凸显, 构建经济高效的生态风险评估体系成为开展场地科学管理与有效修复工作的核心关键。传统的生态风险评估方法未能充分考虑未来开发利用情景导致的生态风险差异以及污染物与生态危害之间的因果关联, 可能导致评估结果偏离场地实际情况, 增加工作的不确定性。本研究提出一种融合因果关系判定的工业污染场地多情景多层次风险评估框架, 该框架采用综合参数建立多种生态情景, 运用希尔准则对场地生态风险与污染物暴露之间的因果关系进行系统严谨的判断, 避免风险源误判和修复策略失准, 在典型工业污染场地的实地验证工作证实了该框架的可行性。这一综合风险评估框架为污染场地生态风险管理提供了科学有效的技术方法与依据。

     

    Abstract: The issue of soil contamination at industrial sites has become increasingly prominent, making the development of an economical and efficient risk assessment framework crucial for scientific site management and effective remediation. Traditional ecological risk assessment methods often fail to adequately account for variations in ecological risks arising from future development scenarios and the causal relationship between pollutants and ecological hazards. This may lead to assessment results deviating from the actual conditions, and increasing uncertainties in the assessment work. This study proposed a multi-scenario, multi-level risk assessment framework for industrial contaminated sites that integrates causal relationship determination. The framework employs comprehensive parameters to construct multiple ecological scenarios and applies Hill's criteria to systematically and rigorously evaluate causal relationships between site-specific ecological risks and pollutant exposure, thereby preventing misjudgments of risk sources and inaccurate remediation strategies. The feasibility of this framework has been verified through field validation work at typical industrial contaminated sites. The proposal of this comprehensive risk assessment framework provides scientific basis and efficient technical pathway for the ecological risk management of contaminated sites.

     

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