2015-2024年湖南省PM2.5污染特征及健康影响研究

Variations of PM2.5 Concentrations and PM2.5-related Health Effects in Hunan Province during 2015-2024

  • 摘要: 根据2015-2024年湖南省14市(州)大气污染物监测数据,综合采用全球暴露死亡模型和统计生命价值法,系统评估了全省实际污染水平及不同PM2.5控制情景下PM2.5死亡负担和健康经济损失。结果表明:(1)2015-2024年湖南省空气质量呈持续改善趋势,除益阳市、娄底市、郴州市以外,其余市(州)PM2.5年均浓度均呈现明显下降趋势。PM2.5浓度下降速率较大的是怀化市、邵阳市和长沙市,年下降速率均在2.2 μg·m-3·a-1以上。污染源减排是近年来湖南省PM2.5浓度降低的主要原因。(2)情景年2022年全省归因于PM2.5污染的死亡人数为60 905〔95%置信区间(CI):46 474~74 923〕人,对应的健康经济损失达1 149.25(95%CI:876.98~1 413.78)亿元,占GDP的2.4%(95%CI:1.8%~2.9%)。(3)基于更严格的PM2.5污染控制目标,如PM2.5年均浓度达到WHO的IT-2(第二阶段指导值)、IT-3(第三阶段指导值)、IT-4(第四阶段指导值)和AQG(准则值)水平,可避免10 925、25 175、34 028和46 936例死亡,减少18.0%、41.5%、56.0%和77.3%的健康经济损失。由于城镇、农村等不同地区统计参数和研究方法存在差异,研究结果存在一定的不确定性。(4)建议进一步健全本地统计方法和参数,以便更加科学地评价PM2.5健康效应,指导各地采取有针对性的减排措施,制定更为严格的地方性空气质量标准,持续改善空气质量,保障公众健康。

     

    Abstract: Based on the monitoring data of air pollutants in 14 cities (prefecture) in Hunan Province from 2015 to 2024, the global exposure mortality model (GEMM) and the value of statistical life method (VSL) were comprehensively applied to systematically evaluate the PM2.5-related mortality burden and health economic loss in Hunan Province under the current pollution levels and different PM2.5 pollution control scenarios. The results indicate: (1) From 2015 to 2024, air quality in Hunan Province demonstrated a consistent improvement trend. Except for Yiyang City, Loudi City and Chenzhou City, the annual averaged PM2.5 concentrations in the other cities (prefecture) all exhibited a significant downward trend. The decrease rates of PM2.5 concentration in the cities of Huaihua, Shaoyang and Changsha were relatively larger compared to other cities, with their annual decrease rates all greater than 2.2 μg·m-3·a-1. The emission reduction measures was the main reason for the decrease in PM2.5 concentration in Hunan Province in recent years. (2) In 2022, the excess PM2.5-related deaths in Hunan Province still amounted to 60 905 (95%CI: 46 474-74 923), and the corresponding health economic loss reached 114.925 (95% CI: 87.698-141.378) billion yuan, accounting for 2.4% (95% CI: 1.8%-2.9%) the gross domestic product (GDP). (3) Based on stricter PM2.5 pollution control goals, such as achieving the WHO levels of IT-2, IT-3, IT-4, and AQG for annual averaged PM2.5 concentrations, 10 925, 25 175,34 028 and 46 936 deaths would be decreased, respectively, and health and economic losses would be reduced by 18.0%, 41.5%, 56.0%, and 77.3%, respectively. Due to variations in statistical parameters and methodologies between urban and rural areas, as well as differences in research approaches, the research findings are subject to a certain degree of uncertainty.(4) It is recommended to further refine local statistical methodologies and parameters to enable a more scientifically rigorous assessment of the health impacts of PM2.5 pollution, and inform region-specific emission reduction strategies and establish more stringent local air quality standards in order to sustainably enhance air quality, and ultimately safeguard public health.

     

/

返回文章
返回