SSP-RCP情景下黄淮海地区土地利用变化及传粉和天敌生物多样性变化模拟

Modelling of Land Use Change and Changes of Pollinator and Natural Enemy Biodiversity in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region under the SSP-RCP Scenarios

  • 摘要: 为了揭示气候变化、经济发展和土地利用变化情景下农业景观传粉和天敌生物多样性变化,选择黄淮海地区作为研究区,整合SD-PLUS耦合土地利用变化模拟模型和GLOBIO生物多样性完整性变化模拟模型,模拟分析SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5这2种气候情景下2030年的土地利用变化,并利用GLOBIO模型计算平均物种多度指标(MSA),预测传粉和自然天敌类群生物多样性完整性变化情况。结果表明:(1)SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,2030年黄淮海地区林地和建设用地均增加,耕地、草地、水体和未利用地均减少,且SSP5-8.5情景下土地利用变化幅度更大。其中,耕地面积在2种情景下分别下降2.32%和3.24%,半自然生境林地和草地总面积分别下降1.53%和1.60%,建设用地面积分别增加19.11%和20.61%。(2)2种情景下,2030年黄淮海地区传粉和自然天敌生物多样性均下降,SSP2-4.5情景下研究区传粉和自然天敌类群面积加权平均MSA分别下降13.03%和12.50%,SSP5-8.5情景下则分别下降15.85%和15.50%,生物多样性完整性损失更严重。(3)为保护农田生物多样性和传粉、害虫控制生态服务,对黄淮海地区未来土地利用结构优化提出如下建议:加强对西部和西北部太行山脉、西南部伏牛山脉、东部泰山和山东丘陵等地区的现存大面积半自然生境保护,避免这些地区受到半自然生境转变、生境破碎化等人类干扰;在安徽、江苏以及河南东部等半自然生境缺失地区合理增加半自然生境比例,构建生态源地和生态廊道。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the potential impacts of climate change, economic development, and land use change on pollinator and natural enemy biodiversity in agricultural landscapes, this study integrated the SD-PLUS coupled model with the GLOBIO model to simulate biodiversity changes under different scenarios in the Huang-Huai-Hai region. Land use patterns were projected under two SSP-RCP scenarios—SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5—and the Mean Species Abundance (MSA) index derived from the GLOBIO model was employed as an indicator of pollinator and natural enemy biodiversity. The results show that: (1) Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the forest land and construction land expanded, while the cultivated land, grassland, water body and unused land decreased, and the magnitude of these land use change were more pronounced under SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Specifically, under the two scenarios, the cultivated land decreased by 2.32% and 3.24%, respectively, semi-natural habitats such as forest land and grassland decreased by 1.53% and 1.60%, respectively, and construction land increased by 19.11% and 20.61%, respectively. (2) Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the biodiversity intactness of both pollinator and natural enemy declined across the Huang-Huai-Hai region. The area-weighted mean MSA of pollinator and natural enemy in the study area decreased by 13.03% and 12.50% in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, respectively, while decreased by 15.85% and 15.50% in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively. (3) To protect farmland biodiversity and ecological services related to pollination and pest biological control, we recommend the following strategies for optimizing land-use structure in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, including protect the existing semi-natural habitats in key areas such as the western and northwestern regions of the Taihang Mountains, the southwestern region of the Funiu Mountains, the Taishan Mountains in the east and the hills of Shandong, to mitigate the negative effects of land use change and habitat fragmentation; to enhance the proportion of semi-natural habitats in regions currently lacking such habitats, such as Anhui province, Jiangsu province and eastern Henan Province to increase ecological source areas and ecological corridors.

     

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