2000—2020年上海市生境质量时空演变及其驱动因素分析

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Habitat Quality in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020

  • 摘要: 上海作为长江三角洲世界级城市群的核心城市在全国生物多样性保护格局中具有独特地位和重要意义。开展城市生境质量评估,掌握其时空分布规律及潜在驱动因素,可以为提升上海城市生态系统服务功能、助力打造高密度人居环境下的韧性生态之城提供技术支撑。本研究基于上海市2000、2005、2010、2015和2020年5期土地利用数据,运用InVEST模型对上海地区生境质量的时空演变特征进行综合评估,并采用地理探测器对影响生境质量分布格局的因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)近20年间上海市生境质量指数均值维持在0.270~0.319范围之间,区域生态环境相对较脆弱,随着时间的推移,生境质量指数呈下降趋势,但降速放缓。(2)上海市生境质量指数的空间分布格局总体上呈现由内向外逐渐递增的圈层辐射特征,内环线内的生境质量指数均值最低且变化幅度不大,中环线、外环线和郊环线内的生境质量指数均值在2000—2020年期间呈较明显下降趋势,2015年之后下降趋势基本得到遏制。(3)建设用地指数是影响上海市生境质量时空演变的重要因素。夜间灯光指数作为城市社会经济活动强弱的直观表征指标,近年来也逐渐超越人口密度、归一化植被指数(NDVI)等指标成为影响上海市生境质量的次要因素。建设用地指数与NDVI的双因子交互作用增强了对上海市生境质量变化的解释程度,交互作用随时间变化呈现抛物线式变化。总体上,近20年来受城镇化影响,上海城市生境质量有所下降,但随着生态保护力度的加强,下降趋势有所放缓。因此,上海城市发展后续应持续加强重要生态空间保护力度,减轻城镇生态压力,推动以基于自然的解决方案替代以人工建设为主的城镇生态空间建设,探索出一条符合超大型城市特点的生物多样性保护路径。

     

    Abstract: As the world-class core city of the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai occupies a unique position and holds important significance in the national biodiversity conservation pattern. It is necessary to conduct an assessment of urban habitat quality, and explore the spatial and temporal distribution patterns and potential driving factors, which can provide technical support for optimizing the ecosystem service functions of Shanghai and facilitating the construction of a resilient ecological city under high-density urban settlements scenarios. Based on the land use data from Shanghai in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020, this study evaluated the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Shanghai using the InVEST (integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs) model. Furthermore, the factors influencing the distribution pattern of habitat quality were analyzed by using geographic detectors. The results indicate that: (1) The average habitat quality index in Shanghai fluctuated within the range of 0.270-0.319 over the past two decades, which showed that the regional ecological environment was relatively fragile. The habitat quality index exhibited a decreasing trend, with the rate of decline slowing down over time. (2) The spatial distribution pattern of habitat quality index in Shanghai exhibited a gradually increasing ring radiation from the inner to the outer areas. The inner ring line area displayed the lowest mean value of the habitat quality index with small variations. The mean value of habitat quality index in the middle ring line, outer ring line, and suburban ring line showed a significant downward trend during 2000-2020, which was basically contained after 2015. (3) The construction land index was a critical factor influencing the spatial and temporal evolution of habitat quality in Shanghai. As a direct indicator reflecting the intensity of urban social and economic activities, the night light index had gradually surpassed the population density and NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) to emerge as the secondary factor influencing the habitat quality of Shanghai in recent years. The two-factor interaction between construction land index and NDVI index enhanced the explanatory degree of habitat quality change in Shanghai, with the interactive effect exhibiting a parabolic change with time. Overall, the urban habitat quality in Shanghai has shown a decreasing trend over the past two decades under the influence of urbanization; however, the rate of decline has slowed down with the intensification of ecological protection measures. Therefore, Shanghai′s urban development should persist in strengthening the protection of critical ecological spaces, reducing urban ecological pressure, promoting the construction of urban ecological spaces predicated on nature-based solutions rather than artificial construction, and exploring a path of biodiversity conservation that suits the characteristics of megacities.

     

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