Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Ecosystem Service Value in Xi'an Metropolitan Area

Urban land use change is a major driver of changes in ecosystem service value. In recent years, land use scenario simulation has been widely applied in urban development, ecosystem services, and other related fields. However, existing methods and models have limited capacity to analyze the deeper relationships between these factors. This study uses the equivalent factor method to calculate the ecosystem service value of the Xi'an metropolitan area and applies the PLUS model to simulate land use and ecosystem service value in 2030 and 2040 under three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, and tourism development. The study investigates the intrinsic relationship between land use and ecosystem service value in the Xi'an metropolitan area. The results of the study show that from 2000 to 2020, the area of cultivated land in the Xi'an metropolitan area steadily decreased from 15 839.86 km² in 2000 to 14 611.90 km² in 2020, with a total reduction of 1 227.69 km². During this period, construction land increased from 2 245.06 km² in 2000 to 3 397.34 km² in 2020, with a total increase of 1 152.28 km². Significant differences in land use structure were predicted between 2030 and 2040 across the three scenarios. Under the natural development scenario, compared with 2020, urban construction land will expand rapidly to 3 736 and 4 052 km², while cultivated land and grassland will steadily shrink. Compared with 2020, by 2030 and 2040, ecosystem service value will decrease by 79.959 billion yuan and 80.984 billion yuan, respectively, compared with 2020. Under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land slows down and will be 3 511 and 3 604 km² in 2030 and 2040, respectively, with the highest ecosystem service values of 81.751 billion yuan and 81.958 billion yuan, respectively. In the tourism development scenario, the encroachment on cultivated land will be effectively controlled, resulting in an increase of 147 and 272 km² in 2030 and 2040, respectively, with ecosystem service values of 81.567 billion yuan and 81.005 billion yuan, respectively. These findings are significant for promoting the sustainable development of the Xi'an metropolitan area in line with the goals of social harmony, ecological balance, cultural and tourism coordination, and future planning and decision-making.