Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Yangtze River Delta Industrial Cooperation Zone

The "one land and six counties" industrial cooperation zone, situated within the Yangtze River Delta region that encompasses three provinces and one municipality, is uniquely characterized as the only naturally contiguous area seamlessly integrating these regions. Systematically analyzing the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon emissions in this zone and the exploring its influencing mechanisms are vital for constructing inter-regional carbon reduction cooperation mechanisms and integrally promoting the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals to achieving green, low-carbon, and high-quality development in the Yangtze River Delta. Based on spatiotemporal sequence data of regional carbon emissions from 2010 to 2020, this study employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method and the STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation to investigate the driving factors of carbon emissions in the "one land and six counties". The results are summarized as follows: (1) The total and per capita carbon emissions in the "one land and six counties" Industrial Cooperation Zone exhibited an overall trend of fluctuating upward growth from 2010 to 2020. Yixing City recorded the highest carbon emissions, whereas Langxi County had the lowest. Apart from Changxing County, which experienced a fluctuating decline in emissions, the other counties showed low-amplitude growth trends. The carbon emission intensity decreases annually across all regions, with higher levels observed in Langxi County and Guangde City, moderate levels in Anji and Changxing Counties, and lower levels in Yixing and Liyang Cities. Regions with better industrial and economic transformation trend to exhibit lower carbon emission intensities. (2) From 2010 to 2020, reductions in energy consumption intensity and improvements in industrial structure exerted negative inhibitory effect on regional carbon emissions, contributing to a reduction of 25.362 7 million tons and 2.666 2 million tons, respectively. Conversely, increases in economic output, population size and changes in the energy mix had positive promoting effects, leading to increases in emissions by 35.258 6 million tons, 0.482 6 million tons and 6.691 9 million tons, respectively. (3) Economic output, energy consumption intensity and energy structure were identified as the principal factors influencing changes in carbon emissions. Specifically, a 1% increase in the share of non-fossil fuels in the energy mix led to a 7.72% decrease in carbon emission; a 1% rise in economic output increased emissions by 0.61%, and a 1% improvement in energy efficiency reduced emissions by -0.000 4%. In the context of the national strategy promoting integrated development in the Yangtze River Delta region, the "one land and six counties" Industrial Cooperation Zone can enhance carbon emissions control by strengthening the regional coordinated emission reduction, optimizing the energy structure, and fostering a low-carbon economy, thereby gradually promote the integrated green and low-carbon development in the region.