Simulation and Trade-off Analysis of Land Spatial Pattern from the Perspective of Landscape Ecological Risk: A Case of Wanxi Dabie Mountain Region, China

By exploring the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of landscape ecological risk in the Dabie mountainous area of western Anhui Province, and simulating the trend of risk change under different scenarios, we can provide scientific basis for the optimization of landscape pattern and ecological risk management in typical mountainous areas, and alleviate the contradiction between development and protection. Based on 2000-2020 land use data, Coupled Landscape Ecological Risk Evaluation Model constructed by Landscape Pattern Indices with PLUS Modeling, the trend of landscape ecological risk evolution in the Dabie Mountain area of western Anhui Province under multiple scenarios were simulated, and the direction of development was weighed. The results show: (1) The main land types in the study area are cropland and woodland, the land for building during the period 2000-2020 was expansion rapidly, woodland is the main land type transferred, landscape ecological risk showed a pattern of high in the south, relatively higher in the north and lower in the center, areas of interlocking land types such as grassland and water surface are risk prone areas, risk aggregation continues to diminish, with both high and low risk areas shrinking. (2) The expansion of land types in the study area is mainly influenced by natural factors and risk indices, except for construction land. The urban development scenario has a significant increase in construction land, the ecological construction scenario has an increase in the area of forest land and waters, and the coordinated development scenario meets the demand for economic and ecological land. (3) The ecological risk level of the landscape in the urban areas of the urban development scenario decreased significantly, and the area of high-risk zones increased slightly; The risk reduction in the woodland and watershed portions of the ecological construction scenario is significant, with the smallest percentage of the area at high risk; Harmonized development scenarios have the smallest area of high and relatively high risk areas, suitable for future development patterns. Based on the results of risk evaluation and prediction, the study provides theoretical support for the choice of ecological security management measures and sustainable development models in mountainous areas.