Prediction of the Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service in the Pearl River Delta under Different Scenarios

The orderly development of land resources is fundamental to achieving sustainable regional development. Scientific assessment and prediction of the impacts of land use changes on regional ecosystem services under different scenarios in the future can provide valuable guidance for sustainable urban planning. Taking the Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomeration as the study area, the PLUS model was used to simulate land use changes under different scenarios. The results combined with the InVEST model were used to predict the changes in water yield, soil conservation, habitat quality, carbon storage, and water purification services under different scenarios. Subsequently, a comprehensive index for ecosystem services was constructed to spatially reflect the supply of ecosystem services. Finally, the comprehensive impacts of future land use changes on ecosystem services were analyzed under different scenarios in 2040. The results show that: (1) The PLUS model exhibits high simulation accuracy and can reasonably predict land use changes in the PRD. (2) Under the natural development scenario, only the level of soil conservation service provision increases; under the urban development scenario, there will be a similar loss in service provision as the natural development scenario, except for a severe loss of water purification services; under the ecological protection scenario, it shows the greatest increase in habitat quality and carbon stocks, but the greatest decrease in water production; and under the sustainable development scenario, it shows the greatest loss of water purification capacity. (3) The spatial distribution patterns of the composite ecosystem service indices in the PRD in 2040 to be similar across all the different scenarios. The overall level of ecosystem services is projected to increase compared with that in 2020, but the overall projected mean value is lower. This study can provide practical suggestions for future land use planning in the PRD and new insights for coordinating land use management and ecological protection.