The Spatial Differentiation and Influencing Factors of In-situ Urbanization Potential Based on Village Micro Scale: A Case Study of Five Districts and Counties of Huai'an City, Jiangsu Province

In-situ urbanization serves as the primary pathway to actualize the new urbanization strategy, which holds immense significance for promoting China's rural rejuvenation and urban-rural sustainable development. With the data collected from 962 administrative villages in Huai'an, the ratio of rural population that had already purchased housing units in urban areas was examined in an attempt to elucidate the potential for in-situ urbanization, and kernel density analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to depict the spatial configuration of in-situ urbanization potential, so as to identify the prevailing influencing factors with the help of geographic probes and GWR. The findings indicate that: (1) Huai'an's in-situ urbanization potential attains 28.0%, but the polarization phenomenon is conspicuous within the region, where Hongze District stands out, reaching 44.4%. (2) Huai'an's potential for in-situ urbanization is spatially delineated by two high ends and a depressed central region type; the spatial correlation is substantial, with hot spots concentrated in Lianshui County and Hongze District, and cold spots in the northeast and southwest of the central downtown. (3) The dominant factors influencing Huai'an's in-situ urbanization potential are, in sequence, the proximity and transportation convenience to the urban center, the proportion of rural inhabitants working away from their domicile on an annual basis, the ratio of superior quality housing, the accessibility to secondary educational institutions, and the proportion of villages in development, etc. Among these, the proximity to the county interacts most influentially with the accessibility to the urban center, with most of these factors interplaying with the accessibility to the urban center. (4) Factors including the proportion of rural inhabitants working away from their domicile on an annual basis, the ratio of superior quality housing, the intensity of development, the accessibility to secondary educational institutions and the urban center, as well as the proportion of villages in development exhibit varying degrees of spatial heterogeneity. Upon the aforesaid research discoveries, the initiatives to advance rural local urbanization ought to be tailored to local contexts with overall planning and all-round consideration.