福利值与异质性:武夷山国家公园旅游者的选择实验分析

    Welfare Value and Heterogeneity: An Experimental Analysis of Tourists′ Choice in Wuyi Mountain National Park

    • 摘要: 选择实验法是国际上用于评估资源环境产品价值的重要方法。基于武夷山国家公园412份问卷数据和游憩资源状况,运用随机效用模型(M-Logit模型和C-Logit模型Ⅰ、Ⅱ共3个模型),选用自然要素(森林覆盖率、溪水能见度)、管理要素(人流拥挤程度、垃圾数量)和经济要素(门票价格)3类5要素进行实验。在模型分析结果中,5个属性指标大多数呈明显的显著性,总体拟合结果较好,选择实验模型有一定的适用性;模型I研究结果表明森林覆盖率(Plant指标)和溪水能见度(Water指标)与游客效用呈正相关关系,对旅游者而言,更在意游览体验,而非门票价格(未达显著水平);模型Ⅱ研究结果表明垃圾数量Garbage3系数值达-1.160,垃圾是最大的负效用属性;人群拥挤程度(Crowd指标)与游客体验度并未呈正相关关系,10人·(100 m2)-1是最适宜人流量;溪水能见度(Water指标)存在显著的水质效用递减现象;武夷山国家公园旅游者总福利值的测算结果显示,模型Ⅰ为32.43亿元,模型Ⅱ当前状态、最佳状态和最差状态值分别为28.62亿、51.35亿和-55.33亿元;收入与受教育程度两个因素是引起旅游者效用异质性的主要来源。

       

      Abstract: The experimental method of choice is an important method used internationally to evaluate the value of resources and environmental products. Based on the data of 412 questionnaires on Wuyi Mountain National Park and the status of recreational resources, this paper conducted the experiment using random utility models (M-Logit model and C-Logit model Ⅰ, Ⅱ), natural elements (forest coverage, visibility of streams), management elements (crowding degree, garbage quantity) and economic element (ticket price). The results of the model analysis show that most of the five attribute indicators are significantly influential, the overall results are fitting well, and the experimental model has certain applicability. The results of Model Ⅰ show that the forest coverage rate (Plant indicator) and stream visibility (Water indicator) are positively correlated to the interest of tourists. For tourists, they are more concerned about tour experience than ticket price (insignificant). The results of Model Ⅱ show that the garbage quantity has the largest negative effect with the Garbage3 coefficient value reached to -1.160, and crowding degree (Crowd index) is negatively correlated with tourist experience degree. 10 people per 100 m2 is the most suitable tourist density. Stream visibility (Water index) has a significant diminishing trend with water quality. The calculation results on Wuyi Mountain National Park tourist welfare value show that Model Ⅰ is 3.243 billion yuan, and Model Ⅱ′s current state, best state and worst state are 2.862 billion, 5.135 billion and -5.533 billion yuan, respectively. Income and education are the two main factors causing heterogeneity of tourists′ interest.

       

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