基于LMDI模型的陕西省能源消费碳排放压力解耦分析

    Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emission Pressure of Energy Consumption in Shaanxi Province Based on LMDI Model

    • 摘要: 依据2001—2011年陕西省能源消费数据,测算并分析了陕西省碳排放量及碳排放压力。采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI)建立陕西省碳压力解耦分解模型,并运用扩展Kaya恒等式分析能源排放强度、能源结构、能源效率、经济效应和环境效应5种因素对陕西省碳排放造成的环境压力的影响。结果表明,2011年陕西省能源消费碳排放总量比2001年上升248%,碳排放所造成的环境压力增长141.76%。经济效应对碳排放压力增长有推动作用。对碳排放压力有抑制作用的2个因素为能源效率和环境效应。提高能源利用效率和增加森林覆盖率是降低陕西省碳排放压力的主要手段。

       

      Abstract: Based on the data of energy consumption of Shaanxi Province in 2001- 2011, carbon emission of Shaanxi Province was analyzed in terms of quantity and pressure. A decoupling decomposition model was established using the LMDI method for analysis of carbon pressure of the province. The extended Kaya identical equation was adopted to analyze impacts of 5 factors, i.e. carbon emission intensity of the energy, energy structure, energy efficiency, economic effect and environmental effect, on the pressure of carbon emission on the environment in Shaanxi Province. Results indicate that the total carbon emission from energy consumption in Shaanxi Province was 248% higher in 2011 than in 2001, and the environmental pressure caused by carbon emission was 141.76% higher. Economic effect plays a promoting role in the growth of carbon emission, while energy efficiency and environmental effect are the two factors that have some inhibitory effect on carbon emission pressure. Therefore, to improve energy utilization efficiency and to increase forest coverage are the two main means to reduce carbon emission pressure in the province.

       

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