长三角地区县域尺度陆地植被固碳量主导因素辨识及驱动贡献分析

    Identification of Dominant Factors and Analysis of Their Driving Contributions of the Dominant Factors to Carbon Sequestration by Terrestrial Vegetation at the County Scale in the Yangtze River Delta Region

    • 摘要: 当前针对快速城市化地区陆地生态系统固碳量的研究中, 关键影响因素的驱动效应及其主导作用尚未得到精确的量化与辨识, 这一局限性制约了对城市生态系统的深入科学理解, 并影响了新型城镇化、城市更新等生态保护措施的科学制定与有效执行。研究在分析2001-2020年长三角地区县级尺度植被固碳量时空特征基础上, 通过一阶偏导归因分析方法探究了人为活动、气候变化、CO2浓度升高和氮沉降4个方面12项指标对植被固碳量变化的主导因素和驱动贡献。结果表明: 2001-2020年长三角地区植被固碳量整体呈微弱增加趋势, 且固碳量变化呈现出西北部平原县域显著增加而东南部县域下降的时空特征; 人为活动、气候变化和氮沉降分别对长三角地区118、182、197个县域陆地植被固碳量(CS)呈正向驱动效应, 而CO2浓度对190个县域具有显著的抑制效应, 同时12项指标对植被固碳量的驱动贡献空间异质效应显著; 人为活动、气候变化、CO2浓度升高和氮沉降分别是124、70、3和5个县域植被固碳量变化的主导因素。建议通过提升城市不同绿地生物多样性水平、整合破碎化城市绿地斑块, 系统性提升城市景观功能和碳汇服务能力; 利用山区县域植被碳汇高背景值, 通过土壤氮磷改良等措施进一步挖掘固碳潜力; 在城市更新过程中强化城市生态基础设施建设, 基于自然解决方案和县域植被固碳量主导因素制定差异化政策措施, 以增强城市气候适应能力。

       

      Abstract: Currently, the driving effects of key influencing factors and their dominant roles in carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems in rapidly urbanizing areas have not yet been accurately quantified and identified. This limitation constrains the in-depth scientific understanding of urban ecosystems and affects the scientific formulation and effective implementation of ecological protection measures such as new urbanization and urban renewal. Based on the analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation carbon sequestration at the county scale in the Yangtze River Delta from 2001 to 2020, this study investigated the dominant factors and driving contributions of 12 indicators related to human activities, climate change, elevated CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition to the changes in vegetation carbon sequestration by using first-order partial derivative attribution analysis. The results show that: (1) the vegetation carbon sequestration in the Yangtze River Delta showed a slight increasing trend, with significant increases in the northwestern plain counties and decreases in the southeastern counties from 2001 to 2020. (2) Human activities, climate change, and nitrogen deposition positively drove the carbon sequestration (CS) of terrestrial vegetation in 118, 182, and 197 counties in the Yangtze River Delta, respectively, while CO2 concentration had a significant inhibitory effect on CS in 190 counties. Meanwhile, there was significant spatial heterogeneity in driving contribution of 12 indicators to the vegetation carbon sequestrationt. (3) Human activities, climate change, elevated CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition were the dominant factors for the changes in vegetation carbon sequestration in 124, 70, 3, and 5 counties, respectively. Recommendations are as follows: (1) systematically enhance the functional and carbon sink service capacity of urban landscapes by improving the biodiversity of different green spaces and integrating fragmented urban green patches. (2) Further explore carbon sequestration potential of mountainous counties through measures such as soil nitrogen and phosphorus improvement considering the high background value of vegetation carbon sinks. (3) Strengthen the construction of urban ecological infrastructure during urban renewal, and develop differentiated policy measures based on Natural based Solutions (NbS) and the dominant factors of vegetation carbon sequestration to enhance the urban climate adaptation capacity.

       

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