Abstract: County-level administrative regions play a critical role in China's carbon control and emission reduction efforts, with territorial space serving as a key strategic area for implementing these tasks. This study, based on socio-economic and land use data from Qionglai City between 2010 and 2020, employs trend analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the Hurst index to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions in this county-level region. The findings are as follows: (1) From 2010 to 2020, Qionglai City's total carbon emissions followed a pattern of "slow growth-rapid growth, " with emissions from various territorial spaces also exhibiting two distinct phases. Notably, carbon emissions from rural production spaces consistently accounted for over 70% of total emissions in the region; (2) Over the past decade, the spatial differentiation pattern of "high in the east, low in the west" has become increasingly pronounced, showing the emergence of "polycentric hotspot agglomerations" and "cold spot contiguities"; (3) A majority (99.1%) of Qionglai City's territorial space exhibits positive sustainability in carbon emission trends, suggesting that emissions will continue along the 2010-2020 trajectory, while only 0.53% of the region-primarily in Huilong Town's hilly areas and along the Nanhe River-will experience a shift from growth to decline in carbon emissions. This study provides valuable data and insights for low-carbon territorial space planning at the county level.