气候变化对云南省澳洲坚果适生区的影响

    The Impact of Climate Change on the Suitable Growth Zone of Macadamia integrifolia in Yunnan Province

    • 摘要: 云南省是澳洲坚果(Macadamia integrifolia)在全球最大的种植区, 拥有巨大的发展潜力, 预测未来气候情景下澳洲坚果在云南省的适生区变化将为现有坚果种植园改造和新建种植园选址提供科学依据。基于澳洲坚果在云南省的70条分布地理信息数据和15个环境因子变量, 使用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型构建云南省澳洲坚果适生区评估及预测模型, 对当前气候条件下云南省澳洲坚果的适生区进行评估, 综合环境因子变量的贡献率确定影响当代澳洲坚果地理分布的主要因子, 定量分析2种未来(2050年)气候情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0)下澳洲坚果在云南省的适生区分布, 并对预测结果进行对比。结果表明: 当前气候条件下, 澳洲坚果总适生区面积约为14.49×104 km2, 约占云南省国土面积的36.8%, 主要分布在滇南、滇西南以及滇西的德宏、保山、普洱、临沧、西双版纳等地区。2种未来气候情景下, 澳洲坚果适生区均有不同程度缩减, 相较于当前的总适生区面积分别减少0.85×104、2.05×104 km2, 占云南省总面积的2.2%、5.2%。总适生区的质心位置有向高海拔地区移动的趋势, 且不同等级适生区质心的东西迁移幅度要大于南北迁移幅度。

       

      Abstract: Yunnan Province is the largest global cultivation region for Macadamia integrifolia, with significant development potential. Predicting changes in suitable habitats for macadamia in Yunnan under future climate scenarios will provide a scientific basis for the transformation of existing orchards and the selection of new plantation sites. Based on 70 geographical distribution records of macadamia in Yunnan and 15 environmental variables, a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was employed to assess and predict suitable habitats for macadamia in Yunnan. The model evaluated the current suitable habitats and identified key influencing factors through the contribution rates of environmental variables. Quantitative analysis was conducted to compare the distribution of suitable habitats under two future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) for the 2050s. The results indicate that, under current climatic conditions, the total suitable area for macadamia is approximately 14.49×104 km2, accounting for 36.8% of Yunnan's land area, primarily distributed in southern, southwestern, and western regions, including Dehong, Baoshan, Pu'er, Lincang, Xishuangbanna. Under the two future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats for macadamia are projected to decrease by 0.85×104 km2 and 2.05×104 km2, accounting for 2.2% and 5.2% of Yunnan's land area, respectively. The centroid of the total suitable area shows a tendency to shift toward higher altitudes, with greater east-west migration observed across different suitability levels compared to north-south migration.

       

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