长三角产业合作区碳排放时空特征及影响因素

    Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Yangtze River Delta Industrial Cooperation Zone

    • 摘要: 长三角产业合作区(简称“一地六县”产业合作区)是长三角三省一市唯一无缝衔接天然板块,系统分析地区碳排放时空异质性,探究其影响机理,对于构建区域间减碳协作机制、一体化推进“双碳”战略,实现长三角绿色低碳高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于2010—2020年地区碳排放时空序列数据,应用对数迪氏平均指数法(LMDI)和基于岭回归估计的STIRPAT模型,研究地区碳排放驱动因素。结果表明:(1)“一地六县”产业合作区碳排放总量和人均碳排放量整体呈现波动上升趋势,其中,宜兴市碳排放量最高,郎溪县最低,除长兴县碳排放量波动下降之外,其余县(市)保持低幅度波动增长。各地区碳排放强度逐年降低,郎溪县和广德市处于高位,安吉县和长兴县处于中位,宜兴市和溧阳市处于低位,产业经济转型发展越好的地区碳排放强度越低。(2)2010—2020年,能源消费强度、产业结构对地区碳排放呈现负向抑制效应,分别促使碳排放减少2 536.27和266.62万t,而经济产出、人口规模、能源结构呈现正向助推效应,分别造成碳排放升高3 525.86、48.26和669.19万t。(3)经济产出、能源消费强度和能源结构是影响各县(市)碳排放变化的主导因素,能源结构、经济产出和能源消费强度因素每增加1%,碳排放量随之分别改变7.72%、0.61%和-0.000 4%。在长三角区域一体化发展上升为国家战略的时代背景下,“一地六县”产业合作区可从加强区域协同减排、优化能源结构和经济低碳化发展等方面对碳排放进行控制,逐步推进区域一体化绿色低碳发展。

       

      Abstract: The "one land and six counties" industrial cooperation zone, situated within the Yangtze River Delta region that encompasses three provinces and one municipality, is uniquely characterized as the only naturally contiguous area seamlessly integrating these regions. Systematically analyzing the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon emissions in this zone and the exploring its influencing mechanisms are vital for constructing inter-regional carbon reduction cooperation mechanisms and integrally promoting the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals to achieving green, low-carbon, and high-quality development in the Yangtze River Delta. Based on spatiotemporal sequence data of regional carbon emissions from 2010 to 2020, this study employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method and the STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation to investigate the driving factors of carbon emissions in the "one land and six counties". The results are summarized as follows: (1) The total and per capita carbon emissions in the "one land and six counties" Industrial Cooperation Zone exhibited an overall trend of fluctuating upward growth from 2010 to 2020. Yixing City recorded the highest carbon emissions, whereas Langxi County had the lowest. Apart from Changxing County, which experienced a fluctuating decline in emissions, the other counties showed low-amplitude growth trends. The carbon emission intensity decreases annually across all regions, with higher levels observed in Langxi County and Guangde City, moderate levels in Anji and Changxing Counties, and lower levels in Yixing and Liyang Cities. Regions with better industrial and economic transformation trend to exhibit lower carbon emission intensities. (2) From 2010 to 2020, reductions in energy consumption intensity and improvements in industrial structure exerted negative inhibitory effect on regional carbon emissions, contributing to a reduction of 25.362 7 million tons and 2.666 2 million tons, respectively. Conversely, increases in economic output, population size and changes in the energy mix had positive promoting effects, leading to increases in emissions by 35.258 6 million tons, 0.482 6 million tons and 6.691 9 million tons, respectively. (3) Economic output, energy consumption intensity and energy structure were identified as the principal factors influencing changes in carbon emissions. Specifically, a 1% increase in the share of non-fossil fuels in the energy mix led to a 7.72% decrease in carbon emission; a 1% rise in economic output increased emissions by 0.61%, and a 1% improvement in energy efficiency reduced emissions by -0.000 4%. In the context of the national strategy promoting integrated development in the Yangtze River Delta region, the "one land and six counties" Industrial Cooperation Zone can enhance carbon emissions control by strengthening the regional coordinated emission reduction, optimizing the energy structure, and fostering a low-carbon economy, thereby gradually promote the integrated green and low-carbon development in the region.

       

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