王婧雯, 冉佳琳, 吴伟, 等. 人类活动与气候变化对海河流域径流影响的尺度效应[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2024, 40(6): 757-765. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.1160
    引用本文: 王婧雯, 冉佳琳, 吴伟, 等. 人类活动与气候变化对海河流域径流影响的尺度效应[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2024, 40(6): 757-765. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.1160
    WANG Jing-wen, RAN Jia-lin, WU Wei, et al. Scaling Effects of Anthropogenic and Climate Change Impacts on Runoff in the Haihe River Basin[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2024, 40(6): 757-765. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.1160
    Citation: WANG Jing-wen, RAN Jia-lin, WU Wei, et al. Scaling Effects of Anthropogenic and Climate Change Impacts on Runoff in the Haihe River Basin[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2024, 40(6): 757-765. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.1160

    人类活动与气候变化对海河流域径流影响的尺度效应

    Scaling Effects of Anthropogenic and Climate Change Impacts on Runoff in the Haihe River Basin

    • 摘要: 海河流域是华北平原最主要的水源供给流域,主要产流集中在上游土石山区。近50 a来该区域的径流量呈现持续减少趋势,导致区域水资源危机。选取海河流域山区57个有长时间序列水文和气象数据的子流域作为研究对象,基于区域水文、气象数据,利用M-K检验分析了径流随时间序列的变化趋势,通过敏感性分析分离了气候变化和人类活动对区域内不同尺度流域径流的贡献率。结果显示,面积较大的流域径流更容易受到降雨和潜在蒸散发改变的影响,在小尺度和大尺度流域上人类活动对径流变化的贡献率显著高于气候变化,在较为干燥的地区人类活动导致的径流变化较大。

       

      Abstract: The Haihe River Basin is the primary water supply basin in the North China Plain. The runoff generation is mainly concentrated in the soil and rocky mountains upstream. Over the past 50 years, the region has experienced a continuous decrease in runoff, resulting in water resource crisis. This paper analyses the trend of runoff over time series in 57 sub-basins with long-term hydrological and meteorological data in the mountainous areas of the Haihe River Basin. The M-K test was employed to analyse the data, and sensitivity analysis was conducted to distinguish the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff from watersheds of different scales in the region. The study revealed that runoff from larger watersheds is more susceptible to changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. It has been demonstrated that the impact of human activities is significantly greater than climate change on changes in runoff in both small- and large-scale watersheds. This effect is particularly pronounced in drier regions.

       

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