景观生态风险视角下皖西大别山区土地利用格局模拟及权衡分析

    Simulation and Trade-off Analysis of Land Spatial Pattern from the Perspective of Landscape Ecological Risk: A Case of Wanxi Dabie Mountain Region, China

    • 摘要: 通过探究皖西大别山区景观生态风险时空演化特征, 模拟不同情景下风险变化趋势, 可为山区景观格局优化与生态风险治理提供科学依据, 缓解开发与保护的矛盾。基于2000-2020年土地利用数据, 耦合景观格局指数构建的景观生态风险评价模型和PLUS模型, 模拟多情景下皖西大别山区景观生态风险演化趋势, 并权衡发展方向。结果表明: (1)研究区主要用地类型为耕地和林地, 2000-2020年建设用地快速扩张, 林地为主要转出地类, 景观生态风险呈现南部高、北部较高、中部低的态势, 草地、水域等用地类型交错区域为风险易发区, 风险聚集性不断减弱, 高、低风险区面积均缩小。(2)除建设用地外, 研究区地类扩张主要受自然因素及风险指数的影响, 城市发展情景下建设用地面积大幅增加, 生态建设情景下林地、水域面积提升, 协调发展情景下经济生态用地需求得到满足。(3)城市发展情景下各城区景观生态风险等级显著下降, 高风险区面积略有增加; 生态建设情景下水域林地地类风险降低明显, 高风险区面积占比最小; 协调发展情景下较高以上风险区面积最小, 适合未来发展模式。该研究基于风险评价及预测结果, 为山区生态安全治理措施及可持续发展模式抉择提供理论支持。

       

      Abstract: By exploring the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of landscape ecological risk in the Dabie mountainous area of western Anhui Province, and simulating the trend of risk change under different scenarios, we can provide scientific basis for the optimization of landscape pattern and ecological risk management in typical mountainous areas, and alleviate the contradiction between development and protection. Based on 2000-2020 land use data, Coupled Landscape Ecological Risk Evaluation Model constructed by Landscape Pattern Indices with PLUS Modeling, the trend of landscape ecological risk evolution in the Dabie Mountain area of western Anhui Province under multiple scenarios were simulated, and the direction of development was weighed. The results show: (1) The main land types in the study area are cropland and woodland, the land for building during the period 2000-2020 was expansion rapidly, woodland is the main land type transferred, landscape ecological risk showed a pattern of high in the south, relatively higher in the north and lower in the center, areas of interlocking land types such as grassland and water surface are risk prone areas, risk aggregation continues to diminish, with both high and low risk areas shrinking. (2) The expansion of land types in the study area is mainly influenced by natural factors and risk indices, except for construction land. The urban development scenario has a significant increase in construction land, the ecological construction scenario has an increase in the area of forest land and waters, and the coordinated development scenario meets the demand for economic and ecological land. (3) The ecological risk level of the landscape in the urban areas of the urban development scenario decreased significantly, and the area of high-risk zones increased slightly; The risk reduction in the woodland and watershed portions of the ecological construction scenario is significant, with the smallest percentage of the area at high risk; Harmonized development scenarios have the smallest area of high and relatively high risk areas, suitable for future development patterns. Based on the results of risk evaluation and prediction, the study provides theoretical support for the choice of ecological security management measures and sustainable development models in mountainous areas.

       

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