东盟国家碳排放动态演变及环境库兹涅茨曲线实证检验分析

    Dynamic Change of Carbon Emissions and Environmental Kuznets Curve Empirical Test Analysis in the ASEAN

    • 摘要: 探索东盟国家碳排放的动态演变, 并分析碳排放与经济社会发展的定量关系, 可为中国-东盟环境等合作提供借鉴参考。基于全球大气研究排放数据库和联合国统计数据库发布的数据, 结合曼-肯德尔检验和环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)检验, 分析1970-2021年东盟碳排放变化趋势和结构特征等, 初步探究东盟各国碳排放达峰情况, 并验证东盟国家人均国内生产总值(GDP)与人均碳排放量之间的EKC关系。结果表明, 1970-2021年, 东盟碳排放总量从1.22×108 t增加到1.74×109 t, 印度尼西亚、越南和泰国等排放量居前5位的国家碳排放总量占比近90%。1970-2021年东盟电力、工业燃烧、其他、交通和建筑部门碳排放量分别增加38.0、13.6、12.7、9.1和1.9倍。电力成为东盟碳排放最大的部门, 排放占比超40%。以10年为跨度, 东盟及各成员国碳排放量多数情况均呈增加趋势。2010年以来的趋势分析显示, 文莱和泰国碳排放或将成为东盟最早实现碳达峰的国家。除文莱外, 东盟其余国家人均碳排放量与人均GDP的EKC曲线拟合程度均较高。经济社会发展对碳排放的作用表现为促进-抑制-促进, 且不同国家出现的拐点值不同。因此, 建议我国与东盟国家加强清洁能源电力合作, 并加大环保投入、保持环境政策连续性。

       

      Abstract: Studying on the dynamic change of carbon emissions in ASEAN member states and analyzing the quantitative relationship between carbon emissions and socioeconomic development can provide a scientific support for China-ASEAN environmental cooperation and other issues. Based on the time series data released by EDGAR and UN Data, the study analyzed the emission structure and trend of ASEAN's carbon emissions. Furthermore, the Mann-Kendall trend test was adopted to explore the carbon peaking situation in ASEAN member states. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model was applied to test the relationship between ASEAN member states' per capita carbon emissions and GDP per capita. The results show that: From 1970 to 2021, the total carbon emissions of the ASEAN increased from 1.22×108 t to 1.74×109 t. The top five emitters, including Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, accounted for nearly 90% of the total carbon emissions. From 1970 to 2021, the carbon emissions of the power, industrial combustion, others, transportation and building sectors in ASEAN increased by 38.0, 13.6, 12.7, 9.1 and 1.9 times, respectively. The power sector is the primary source of carbon emissions in ASEAN, accounting for more than 40% of total emission. Over the years from 1970 to 2021, the carbon emissions of ASEAN and its member countries have mostly shown an increasing trend every decade. The trend analysis result since 2010 show that Brunei and Thailand may be the earliest ASEAN states to peak carbon emissions. Except Brunei the EKC curves for per capita carbon emissions and GDP per capita are highly parallel for ASEAN member countries. The impact of socioeconomic development on carbon emissions follows the mode of "facilitating-suppressing-facilitating", with different inflection points in different countries. Therefore, it is recommended that China to strengthen cooperation in clean energy and power sector with ASEAN member states, as well as maintain continuous investment and policy continuity in environment protection.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回