长三角中心城市群生态环境与社会经济耦合协调发展及其影响因素研究

    Research on the Development of Coupling Coordinated Relationship and the Affecting Factors of Eco-environment and Socio-economy in Central Urban Agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta Region

    • 摘要: 环境与经济耦合协调发展是实现区域可持续发展的必由之路。通过构建评价指标体系,采用多种权重评价法,结合博弈论组合赋权法和耦合协调度模型对2015和2020年长三角27个中心城市群生态环境与社会经济耦合协调度及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明,森林覆盖率和高等教育分别在生态环境和社会经济指标体系中权重最高。对比2015年,2020年区域生态环境质量和社会经济发展指数提升显著,分别有77.78%和88.90%的城市在生态环境和社会经济发展中呈现上升趋势。在空间分布上,区域生态环境发展空间自相关性增强,空间集聚效应显著,但社会经济发展空间集聚度呈现略微下降趋势。环境经济耦合协调发展较好的城市由区域中部扩展至区域中部和南部,其中,浙江省环境经济耦合协调发展提升显著。中心城市群没有耦合失调的城市,但高度耦合协调发展的城市数量仍相对较少。结构方程模型分析表明,森林覆盖率、大气环境和经济结构对区域环境经济耦合协调发展的影响尤为显著,因此在提升区域森林覆盖率、控制大气污染和增加单位土地面积收入等具体措施上加大实施力度,有助于协同推进区域经济高质量发展与生态环境的高水平保护。

       

      Abstract: Coordinated development of the eco-environmental and socio-economic sectors has become a fundamental objective for the regional economic development of China. During this study, an evaluation index system was built by adopting multiple weight evaluation method, weighting method based on game theory and coupling coordination model to analyze the coupling coordinated relationship and affecting factors of eco-environment and socio-economy in 27 central urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Delta Region in 2015 and 2020. The results show that forest coverage and higher education carry the highest weight in the indicator systems of eco-environmental and socio-economic development, respectively. Compared with 2015, the regional ecological environment quality and socio-economic development levels have improved significantly in 2020, and 77.78% and 88.90% of the cities showed upward trend in eco-environmental and socio-economic development, respectively. In terms of spatial distribution, the regional eco-environment and socio-economic development showed significant spatial autocorrelation and strong agglomerative effects, however, the spatial agglomeration of socio-economic development showed a slight downward trend. The number of cities with well-coordinated environmental and economic development increased from the central region to the central and southern regions, and the coordinated development of environmental and economic coupling in Zhejiang improved significantly. There were no cities in the central urban agglomeration with significant maladjustment, but there were still relatively few cities with extremely coupled and coordinated development. Structural equation model analysis shows that forest coverage, atmospheric environment, and economic structure have particularly significant effects on the coupled and coordinated development of regional environments and economies. Therefore, strengthening the implementation of specific measures, such as improving regional forest coverage, controlling air pollution and increasing land area income, will help jointly promote high-quality economic development and high-level ecological environment protection.

       

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