于丹丹, 童文君, 刘威, 等. 基于“自然未来框架”的中国生物多样性保护目标情景研究初探[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2021, 37(10): 1234-1241. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2021.0237
    引用本文: 于丹丹, 童文君, 刘威, 等. 基于“自然未来框架”的中国生物多样性保护目标情景研究初探[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2021, 37(10): 1234-1241. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2021.0237
    YU Dan-dan, TONG Wen-jun, LIU Wei, et al. A Preliminary Study on Scenarios for Biodiversity Targets in China Based on the "Nature Futures Framework"[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2021, 37(10): 1234-1241. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2021.0237
    Citation: YU Dan-dan, TONG Wen-jun, LIU Wei, et al. A Preliminary Study on Scenarios for Biodiversity Targets in China Based on the "Nature Futures Framework"[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2021, 37(10): 1234-1241. DOI: 10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2021.0237

    基于“自然未来框架”的中国生物多样性保护目标情景研究初探

    A Preliminary Study on Scenarios for Biodiversity Targets in China Based on the "Nature Futures Framework"

    • 摘要: 遏制生物多样性丧失,确保基于科学证据的生物多样性保护目标得到充分确立和有效实施,评估和检验未来人类发展和政策选择的不同途径对自然和自然对人类贡献的影响,情景是不可或缺的重要工具。联合国生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学-政策平台(Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services,IPBES)情景和模型工作组通过开展与不同利益相关方的未来愿景规划活动,采用迭代、参与式的情景设计方法开发了"自然未来框架"(Nature Futures Framework,简称"NFF框架")。"NFF框架"将人与自然关系置于核心地位,旨在审视自然的复杂、多重价值,探索扭转生物多样性下降和自然对人类贡献的有效途径。为确保该框架下未来情景的多样性和包容性,迫切需要开展多层次(如区域、国家)的案例研究。为此,该研究系统综述了基于"NFF框架"发展情景叙述的方法流程,确立了基于"NFF框架"的中国生物多样性保护目标情景开发要点,探索构建了"美丽中国""和谐中国"和"智慧中国"3套积极的未来情景。

       

      Abstract: Biodiversity targets have significant implications for mankind to curb the biodiversity loss. Scenarios are considered as indispensable tools to make such science-based targets well established and implemented. They can facilitate to examine the impact of different pathways and policy choices of future human development on nature and nature's contribution to people. The scenarios and models task force of the Intergovernmental Science Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) has developed the "Nature Futures Framework" (NFF) using an iterative and participatory scenario design approach through co-production of visions with a diversity of stakeholders. The "NFF framework" puts human-nature relationships at its core, perceives the multiple values of nature, and explores effective pathways to reverse the biodiversity decline and enhance nature's contribution to people. To ensure the diversity and inclusiveness of future scenarios under the "NFF framework", multi-level case studies should be urgently carried out at the regional or national scales. Here, we review the methodological process of developing scenario narratives, propose the key points for creating scenarios of biodiversity targets in China and establish three sets of positive scenarios for "Beautiful China" "Harmonious China" and "Smart China" based on the "NFF framework".

       

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